Decision 14

Victory for the right.

The National Party were handed a third term in office when voters overwhelmingly rejected the prospect of a broad left alliance, and returned John Key’s government to the treasury benches. Collecting over 48% of the total votes cast, National increased its majority, and although it does not need coalition partners in order to govern, Key has signaled he will work with United Future, ACT, and the Maori Party. National’s potential partners in government scored barely 2% of the vote between them, yet leaders of all three maybe be rewarded with senior government positions. United Future’s Peter Dunne will almost certainly return to cabinet despite his party polling less (0.22%) than the Legalise Cannabis Party (0.41%).

Despite the millions thrown at their campaigns, both the Conservatives and Internet Mana failed to get a single MP into the house. Colin Craig’s Conservative Party substantially increased their vote from 2011, but fell just short of the required 5% threshold. Kim Dot Com’s Internet Party in conjunction with Mana scored 1.26% of the vote, but Mana leader Hone Harawira lost his electorate seat to Labour, putting an end to the party’s parliamentary hopes.

Defeat for the left.

In what was a resounding defeat for the forces of the left, the Green Party held its ground, polling around 10%. In an election which saw a large swing to the right, this was a remarkably good performance, and augurs well for the future of the Greens.

  

But the real story of the 2014 election was the further collapse of the Labour vote. While Labour did well overall in the electorates, and exceptionally well in capturing all but one of the Maori seats, its party vote sunk to a record low of 24%. 

The Master

So why have so many voters deserted Labour? For the answer, look no further than the master of political savvy, the right honourable, Winston Peters. During this, and every other election campaign in recent memory, Mr. Peters is constantly asked the question: “Who will you support in a potential coalition government?” The answer is always the same: “Wouldn’t you like to know?” Predictably, this recalcitrance on the part of the New Zealand First leader, attracts considerable ire from the frustrated media. Commentators and reporters routinely resort to melordrama and hyperbole: “You owe it to the voters Mr. Peters to declare your intentions” and: “You have a duty to your supporters,” etc., etc. Water off a ducks back to the steadfast Winston, who knows exactly what he is doing. There is absolutely no necessity to prematurely declare any post election intentions. Mr. Peters considerably increased his share of the vote at this election (8.85%), and in all probability a substantial number of those came from disaffected Labour supporters. How many of those voters, and all the others who voted for NZ First, would have given Peters their vote if he had declared a post election promise to negotiate with a potential left coalition? New Zealand First voters voting for a government with the Greens, and maybe even worse, the ‘loonies’ of the Internet Mana Party? No chance! Such a declaration would have sent half of his supporters scurrying over to National or the Conservatives. Similarly, a declaration in favour of National would have alienated his contingent of anti government supporters. Winston just isn’t that stupid.

Herein, at least in part, explains Labour’s dismal result. When David Cunliffe announced he would be looking to form a government with the Greens and NZ First, it was tantamount to an admission of defeat. Along with National, Labour is, and always has been (at least in living memory), the most powerful political party in the country. Labour should not be courting smaller, less signigficant parties; it is up to those parties to ingratiate themselves with Labour. A vote for Labour in this election wasn’t just a vote for Labour; it was a broader vote, a vote for a left wing coalition which potentially, could have included the controversial Internet Mana Party. David Cunliffe ruled out Internet Mana as being part of any new government, but the suspicion remained none the less in the minds of middle-New Zealand voters, that if push came to shove, the left might very well include Dot Com’s party in forming a coalition. This prospect was anathema to the majority of New Zealanders.

Labour owes its past electoral successes, at least in the last half century, by positioning itself at the centre of the political spectrum, and winning votes from average working people and the middle classes. Those same voters have turned against Labour in the last two elections in ever increasing numbers and fled, in the most part, to National and NZ First. The largely conservative voting public were never going to vote for the prospect of a Labour government in thrall to the Greens, or, and, any other so-called ‘extreme’ left wing party. But they may well have voted for a Labour Party that had reiterated its historical identity and distanced itself from other, less appealing, left of centre entities, regardless of any coalition outcome.

‘Brand’ Labour should not be confused with any other party, even if others, such as the Greens, have sought to imitate its social policies. Labour must once again stand alone, and stand proud.

*% election result figures are approximate.